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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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498graded matches
0.5942Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9965Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 2 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%11.6%43
10–20%16.0%14.9%228
20–30%24.9%27.3%557
30–40%34.5%30.0%227
40–50%44.3%47.8%178
50–60%54.7%46.8%126
60–70%64.2%62.5%80
70–80%74.3%82.1%39
80–90%84.8%78.6%14
90–100%92.8%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (498)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 02:31 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home54.76% Draw22.07% Away23.17%
    0–2 Missed
  2. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home54.58% Draw21.99% Away23.43%
    0–2 Missed
  3. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home54.65% Draw21.92% Away23.43%
    0–2 Missed
  4. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home54.65% Draw21.92% Away23.43%
    0–2 Missed
  5. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home54.65% Draw21.92% Away23.43%
    0–2 Missed
  6. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home54.65% Draw21.92% Away23.43%
    0–2 Missed
  7. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home54.65% Draw21.92% Away23.43%
    0–2 Missed
  8. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home54.65% Draw21.92% Away23.43%
    0–2 Missed
  9. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home55.06% Draw23.00% Away21.94%
    0–2 Missed
  10. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home57.06% Draw24.08% Away18.86%
    0–2 Missed
  11. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home66.74% Draw26.21% Away7.05%
    0–2 Missed
  12. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home66.74% Draw26.21% Away7.05%
    0–2 Missed
  13. Published USL Championship · United States
    Indy Eleven Miami FC
    Home55.79% Draw32.19% Away12.02%
    0–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.