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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5991Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0035Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.5%10.0%20
10–20%16.3%11.7%179
20–30%25.3%27.5%622
30–40%34.8%32.3%254
40–50%44.8%41.4%191
50–60%54.6%56.5%131
60–70%63.8%71.4%63
70–80%74.0%77.8%27
80–90%84.4%50.0%4
90–100%--0

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 12 Oct 2026 · 11:27 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home22.50% Draw25.44% Away52.07%
    1–3 Correct pick
  2. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home22.65% Draw25.56% Away51.79%
    1–3 Correct pick
  3. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home22.65% Draw25.56% Away51.79%
    1–3 Correct pick
  4. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home22.65% Draw25.56% Away51.79%
    1–3 Correct pick
  5. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home22.65% Draw25.56% Away51.79%
    1–3 Correct pick
  6. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home24.27% Draw25.72% Away50.01%
    1–3 Correct pick
  7. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home25.28% Draw25.92% Away48.79%
    1–3 Correct pick
  8. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home25.26% Draw25.52% Away49.22%
    1–3 Correct pick
  9. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home22.95% Draw25.95% Away51.10%
    1–3 Correct pick
  10. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home23.10% Draw25.95% Away50.95%
    1–3 Correct pick
  11. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home23.10% Draw25.95% Away50.95%
    1–3 Correct pick
  12. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home23.10% Draw25.95% Away50.95%
    1–3 Correct pick
  13. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Caicara Comercial PI
    Home18.68% Draw32.78% Away48.53%
    1–3 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.