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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5747Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9692Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.1%13.8%29
10–20%16.2%12.0%208
20–30%25.0%24.6%564
30–40%34.2%32.7%245
40–50%44.4%48.3%180
50–60%54.8%51.6%128
60–70%64.1%71.8%78
70–80%74.0%89.7%29
80–90%85.4%75.0%8
90–100%91.6%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 20:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home51.98% Draw27.58% Away20.44%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home51.98% Draw27.58% Away20.44%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home45.07% Draw28.79% Away26.14%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home44.79% Draw28.90% Away26.32%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home41.66% Draw29.85% Away28.49%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home41.66% Draw29.85% Away28.49%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home46.05% Draw28.97% Away24.98%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home45.05% Draw29.12% Away25.83%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home44.62% Draw29.72% Away25.66%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home51.66% Draw22.49% Away25.85%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home39.61% Draw40.57% Away19.82%
    1–1 Correct pick
  12. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home51.66% Draw22.49% Away25.85%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home56.93% Draw22.35% Away20.72%
    1–1 Missed
  14. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Barau FC
    Home30.91% Draw33.13% Away35.96%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.