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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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485graded matches
0.5758Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9739Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 15 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.6%14.0%57
10–20%16.1%13.5%185
20–30%24.9%22.2%544
30–40%34.3%36.8%258
40–50%44.8%46.8%173
50–60%54.6%55.4%112
60–70%63.9%72.5%69
70–80%74.2%71.1%38
80–90%85.7%87.5%8
90–100%94.5%81.8%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (485)

Updated 13 Oct 2026 · 16:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home30.53% Draw26.62% Away42.84%
    3–2 Missed
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home30.53% Draw26.62% Away42.84%
    3–2 Missed
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home30.53% Draw26.62% Away42.84%
    3–2 Missed
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home30.53% Draw26.62% Away42.84%
    3–2 Missed
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home30.53% Draw26.62% Away42.84%
    3–2 Missed
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home26.17% Draw25.55% Away48.28%
    3–2 Missed
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home27.06% Draw25.70% Away47.24%
    3–2 Missed
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home26.84% Draw26.75% Away46.41%
    3–2 Missed
  9. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home39.33% Draw23.30% Away37.36%
    3–2 Correct pick
  10. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home33.57% Draw34.54% Away31.89%
    3–2 Missed
  11. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home33.57% Draw34.54% Away31.89%
    3–2 Missed
  12. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home36.52% Draw37.49% Away25.99%
    3–2 Missed
  13. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Spain
    River Ebro Cenicero
    Home34.87% Draw35.84% Away29.29%
    3–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.