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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5988Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9996Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%4.7%43
10–20%16.3%16.6%157
20–30%25.1%25.8%586
30–40%34.9%36.3%248
40–50%44.8%41.5%193
50–60%54.9%54.7%117
60–70%64.5%64.2%53
70–80%75.9%73.9%23
80–90%83.0%81.8%11
90–100%95.0%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (478) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 08:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home37.89% Draw28.39% Away33.72%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home37.89% Draw28.39% Away33.72%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home37.89% Draw28.39% Away33.72%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home37.89% Draw28.39% Away33.72%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home37.89% Draw28.39% Away33.72%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home32.88% Draw27.92% Away39.20%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home33.16% Draw27.93% Away38.91%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home33.25% Draw27.67% Away39.08%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home40.30% Draw22.95% Away36.75%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home34.01% Draw34.98% Away31.01%
    1–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home34.01% Draw34.98% Away31.01%
    1–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home35.47% Draw36.44% Away28.09%
    1–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Spain
    Jove Español Acero
    Home35.40% Draw36.34% Away28.26%
    1–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.