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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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494graded matches
0.5470Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9306Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%6.1%49
10–20%15.9%12.4%217
20–30%24.9%22.3%548
30–40%34.9%32.0%244
40–50%44.8%51.9%181
50–60%54.6%58.5%106
60–70%64.3%75.3%81
70–80%74.7%83.8%37
80–90%84.1%80.0%15
90–100%95.4%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 07 Nov 2026 · 19:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home36.67% Draw29.76% Away33.57%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home38.23% Draw29.66% Away32.11%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home36.36% Draw29.24% Away34.40%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home36.36% Draw29.24% Away34.40%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home36.36% Draw29.24% Away34.40%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home36.36% Draw29.24% Away34.40%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home36.36% Draw29.24% Away34.40%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home36.36% Draw29.24% Away34.40%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home52.75% Draw28.63% Away18.62%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home48.06% Draw27.04% Away24.90%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home48.06% Draw27.04% Away24.90%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home51.77% Draw26.51% Away21.72%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home52.02% Draw26.51% Away21.47%
    0–1 Missed
  14. Published Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Águilas Hércules
    Home38.88% Draw33.23% Away27.89%
    0–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.