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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5616Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9530Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%6.3%63
10–20%16.0%10.8%203
20–30%24.5%25.6%554
30–40%34.8%33.8%237
40–50%44.8%42.2%173
50–60%54.6%56.7%127
60–70%64.8%78.1%64
70–80%74.9%76.7%43
80–90%84.4%85.7%21
90–100%95.2%66.7%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 08:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home21.95% Draw20.91% Away57.14%
    0–2 Correct pick
  2. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home22.51% Draw20.95% Away56.54%
    0–2 Correct pick
  3. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home22.51% Draw20.95% Away56.54%
    0–2 Correct pick
  4. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home22.51% Draw20.95% Away56.54%
    0–2 Correct pick
  5. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home22.51% Draw20.95% Away56.54%
    0–2 Correct pick
  6. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home21.84% Draw20.81% Away57.36%
    0–2 Correct pick
  7. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home21.84% Draw20.81% Away57.36%
    0–2 Correct pick
  8. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home21.44% Draw18.99% Away59.57%
    0–2 Correct pick
  9. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home21.44% Draw18.99% Away59.57%
    0–2 Correct pick
  10. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home47.77% Draw21.54% Away30.69%
    0–2 Missed
  11. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home47.77% Draw21.54% Away30.69%
    0–2 Missed
  12. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home47.77% Draw21.54% Away30.69%
    0–2 Missed
  13. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home47.77% Draw21.54% Away30.69%
    0–2 Missed
  14. Published FA Trophy · England
    Dunston UTS Avro
    Home33.43% Draw33.73% Away32.84%
    0–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.