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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5670Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9609Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%7.8%64
10–20%16.0%11.4%211
20–30%24.7%26.0%553
30–40%34.7%32.6%227
40–50%44.7%44.4%171
50–60%54.5%54.0%124
60–70%64.7%76.5%68
70–80%75.0%72.9%48
80–90%84.1%89.5%19
90–100%95.2%66.7%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 05:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home66.16% Draw17.91% Away15.93%
    1–3 Missed
  2. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home66.16% Draw17.91% Away15.93%
    1–3 Missed
  3. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home66.15% Draw17.92% Away15.93%
    1–3 Missed
  4. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home66.15% Draw17.92% Away15.93%
    1–3 Missed
  5. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home66.15% Draw17.92% Away15.93%
    1–3 Missed
  6. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home65.98% Draw17.99% Away16.04%
    1–3 Missed
  7. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home63.79% Draw18.60% Away17.61%
    1–3 Missed
  8. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home65.54% Draw17.32% Away17.13%
    1–3 Missed
  9. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home65.54% Draw17.32% Away17.13%
    1–3 Missed
  10. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home56.15% Draw21.12% Away22.73%
    1–3 Missed
  11. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home56.15% Draw21.12% Away22.73%
    1–3 Missed
  12. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home56.15% Draw21.12% Away22.73%
    1–3 Missed
  13. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home56.15% Draw21.12% Away22.73%
    1–3 Missed
  14. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Switzerland
    Courtételle Solothurn
    Home34.98% Draw33.89% Away31.13%
    1–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.