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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5932Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9963Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%10.9%46
10–20%16.0%15.4%228
20–30%24.9%26.8%559
30–40%34.4%31.5%213
40–50%44.4%45.5%176
50–60%54.7%49.2%128
60–70%64.2%63.1%84
70–80%74.5%78.9%38
80–90%85.1%83.3%12
90–100%93.1%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 09:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home40.26% Draw26.71% Away33.03%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home40.26% Draw26.71% Away33.03%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home40.26% Draw26.71% Away33.03%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home40.26% Draw26.71% Away33.03%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home40.26% Draw26.71% Away33.03%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home40.29% Draw26.68% Away33.04%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home39.95% Draw26.69% Away33.36%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home39.10% Draw28.11% Away32.79%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home39.10% Draw28.11% Away32.79%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home38.27% Draw20.06% Away41.67%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home31.16% Draw34.91% Away33.93%
    1–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home31.16% Draw34.91% Away33.93%
    1–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home31.16% Draw34.91% Away33.93%
    1–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Slivnishki geroy CSKA Sofia III
    Home18.12% Draw41.38% Away40.50%
    1–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.