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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.6029Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0073Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%0.0%37
10–20%16.0%18.9%206
20–30%25.1%26.4%576
30–40%34.5%31.1%228
40–50%44.8%47.2%178
50–60%54.7%53.4%133
60–70%65.2%54.5%77
70–80%73.6%79.2%24
80–90%85.0%87.5%8
90–100%93.5%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 08:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home27.90% Draw21.02% Away51.08%
    4–3 Missed
  2. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home27.90% Draw21.02% Away51.08%
    4–3 Missed
  3. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home29.03% Draw21.05% Away49.93%
    4–3 Missed
  4. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home29.03% Draw21.02% Away49.95%
    4–3 Missed
  5. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home28.37% Draw20.78% Away50.84%
    4–3 Missed
  6. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home28.37% Draw20.78% Away50.84%
    4–3 Missed
  7. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home34.02% Draw21.14% Away44.84%
    4–3 Missed
  8. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home34.02% Draw21.14% Away44.84%
    4–3 Missed
  9. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home34.06% Draw20.84% Away45.10%
    4–3 Missed
  10. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home34.06% Draw20.84% Away45.10%
    4–3 Missed
  11. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home60.45% Draw18.08% Away21.47%
    4–3 Correct pick
  12. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home61.42% Draw18.08% Away20.50%
    4–3 Correct pick
  13. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home61.42% Draw18.08% Away20.50%
    4–3 Correct pick
  14. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home61.42% Draw18.08% Away20.50%
    4–3 Correct pick
  15. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Stranraer East Kilbride
    Home38.10% Draw33.19% Away28.71%
    4–3 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.