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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5640Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9565Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.5%6.8%59
10–20%16.0%10.7%205
20–30%24.6%25.5%553
30–40%34.8%34.2%243
40–50%44.8%42.2%173
50–60%54.7%57.3%124
60–70%64.6%78.8%66
70–80%74.8%73.8%42
80–90%84.2%85.0%20
90–100%95.2%66.7%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 07:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home26.72% Draw20.47% Away52.81%
    2–1 Missed
  2. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home26.72% Draw20.47% Away52.81%
    2–1 Missed
  3. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home11.88% Draw15.20% Away72.92%
    2–1 Missed
  4. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home11.87% Draw15.17% Away72.96%
    2–1 Missed
  5. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home11.45% Draw14.78% Away73.77%
    2–1 Missed
  6. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home11.45% Draw14.78% Away73.77%
    2–1 Missed
  7. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home14.30% Draw16.12% Away69.58%
    2–1 Missed
  8. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home14.30% Draw16.12% Away69.58%
    2–1 Missed
  9. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home13.84% Draw15.17% Away70.99%
    2–1 Missed
  10. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home13.84% Draw15.17% Away70.99%
    2–1 Missed
  11. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home45.44% Draw17.78% Away36.79%
    2–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home51.83% Draw17.77% Away30.40%
    2–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home51.83% Draw17.77% Away30.40%
    2–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home51.83% Draw17.77% Away30.40%
    2–1 Correct pick
  15. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Kelty Hearts Montrose
    Home33.53% Draw33.63% Away32.84%
    2–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.