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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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485graded matches
0.5407Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9202Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 15 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%4.4%45
10–20%16.2%10.3%213
20–30%25.0%22.8%540
30–40%34.3%35.1%239
40–50%44.7%47.3%169
50–60%54.5%58.9%124
60–70%64.4%72.2%72
70–80%74.3%92.1%38
80–90%85.2%92.3%13
90–100%93.1%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (485)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 16:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home68.63% Draw17.50% Away13.87%
    3–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home68.63% Draw17.50% Away13.87%
    3–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home71.62% Draw16.20% Away12.18%
    3–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home71.67% Draw16.16% Away12.17%
    3–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home71.28% Draw16.23% Away12.48%
    3–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home71.28% Draw16.23% Away12.48%
    3–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home60.91% Draw19.25% Away19.84%
    3–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home60.91% Draw19.25% Away19.84%
    3–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home60.18% Draw19.95% Away19.87%
    3–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home60.18% Draw19.95% Away19.87%
    3–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home70.13% Draw17.73% Away12.14%
    3–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home77.41% Draw17.58% Away5.01%
    3–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home77.41% Draw17.58% Away5.01%
    3–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home77.41% Draw17.58% Away5.01%
    3–0 Correct pick
  15. Published Challenge Cup · Scotland
    Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Motherwell U21
    Home48.83% Draw33.13% Away18.04%
    3–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.