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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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488graded matches
0.5614Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9507Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.1%9.7%31
10–20%16.3%11.8%204
20–30%25.0%23.7%561
30–40%34.2%32.9%249
40–50%44.4%48.0%177
50–60%54.7%53.5%127
60–70%64.2%75.3%77
70–80%74.1%96.6%29
80–90%85.5%75.0%8
90–100%91.6%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 09:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home55.32% Draw23.19% Away21.49%
    4–0 Correct pick
  2. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home55.46% Draw23.18% Away21.37%
    4–0 Correct pick
  3. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home55.39% Draw23.19% Away21.43%
    4–0 Correct pick
  4. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home55.39% Draw23.19% Away21.43%
    4–0 Correct pick
  5. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home55.39% Draw23.19% Away21.43%
    4–0 Correct pick
  6. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home55.39% Draw23.19% Away21.43%
    4–0 Correct pick
  7. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home55.39% Draw23.19% Away21.43%
    4–0 Correct pick
  8. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home55.39% Draw23.19% Away21.43%
    4–0 Correct pick
  9. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home55.34% Draw23.20% Away21.46%
    4–0 Correct pick
  10. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home53.88% Draw23.76% Away22.36%
    4–0 Correct pick
  11. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home51.37% Draw22.82% Away25.81%
    4–0 Correct pick
  12. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home51.37% Draw22.82% Away25.81%
    4–0 Correct pick
  13. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home44.46% Draw21.25% Away34.29%
    4–0 Correct pick
  14. Published National League · England
    Wealdstone Gateshead
    Home33.62% Draw32.35% Away34.02%
    4–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.