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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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497graded matches
0.5738Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9677Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.0%12.5%64
10–20%15.8%14.0%222
20–30%24.6%24.5%542
30–40%34.9%35.5%231
40–50%44.6%41.9%167
50–60%54.5%57.0%121
60–70%64.9%67.1%73
70–80%74.9%69.4%49
80–90%85.6%95.0%20
90–100%97.5%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495) · Earlier models (2)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 12:00 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home39.16% Draw27.19% Away33.65%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home37.18% Draw27.35% Away35.46%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home37.18% Draw27.36% Away35.46%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home37.18% Draw27.36% Away35.46%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home37.18% Draw27.36% Away35.46%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home37.18% Draw27.36% Away35.46%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home37.18% Draw27.36% Away35.46%
    2–2 Missed
  8. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home37.18% Draw27.36% Away35.46%
    2–2 Missed
  9. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home37.06% Draw27.38% Away35.56%
    2–2 Missed
  10. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home36.76% Draw28.89% Away34.35%
    2–2 Missed
  11. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home38.38% Draw27.57% Away34.05%
    2–2 Missed
  12. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home38.30% Draw27.73% Away33.98%
    2–2 Missed
  13. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home41.75% Draw25.04% Away33.21%
    2–2 Missed
  14. Published League Two · England
    Shrewsbury Colchester
    Home26.42% Draw35.49% Away38.09%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.