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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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491graded matches
0.5903Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9933Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.5%12.2%74
10–20%15.9%13.7%204
20–30%24.9%25.6%544
30–40%34.3%36.7%221
40–50%44.9%43.7%174
50–60%54.5%53.0%115
60–70%64.6%63.6%66
70–80%75.0%74.0%50
80–90%83.5%64.7%17
90–100%93.6%87.5%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 14:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home46.50% Draw24.93% Away28.56%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home43.70% Draw25.27% Away31.03%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home43.96% Draw25.05% Away30.98%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home43.96% Draw25.05% Away30.98%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home43.96% Draw25.05% Away30.98%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home43.96% Draw25.05% Away30.98%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home43.96% Draw25.05% Away30.98%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home43.96% Draw25.05% Away30.98%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home43.06% Draw25.16% Away31.78%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home42.67% Draw26.24% Away31.09%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home36.30% Draw37.20% Away26.51%
    1–1 Correct pick
  12. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home36.48% Draw37.38% Away26.14%
    1–1 Correct pick
  13. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home36.94% Draw37.91% Away25.15%
    1–1 Correct pick
  14. Published League Two · England
    Rotherham Crewe
    Home30.29% Draw37.21% Away32.50%
    1–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.