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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5844Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9801Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%0.0%37
10–20%16.0%16.0%200
20–30%25.1%24.9%575
30–40%34.5%31.0%242
40–50%44.7%52.6%175
50–60%54.8%57.3%131
60–70%65.0%54.7%75
70–80%73.5%83.3%24
80–90%84.5%85.7%7
90–100%93.7%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 18:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home55.43% Draw24.08% Away20.49%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home53.80% Draw24.42% Away21.79%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.10% Draw24.00% Away21.90%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.10% Draw24.00% Away21.90%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.10% Draw24.00% Away21.90%
    1–0 Correct pick
  6. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.10% Draw24.00% Away21.90%
    1–0 Correct pick
  7. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.10% Draw24.00% Away21.90%
    1–0 Correct pick
  8. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.10% Draw24.00% Away21.90%
    1–0 Correct pick
  9. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.22% Draw23.75% Away22.02%
    1–0 Correct pick
  10. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.29% Draw23.52% Away22.19%
    1–0 Correct pick
  11. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.57% Draw23.24% Away22.19%
    1–0 Correct pick
  12. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.81% Draw22.71% Away22.48%
    1–0 Correct pick
  13. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home54.26% Draw23.03% Away22.71%
    1–0 Correct pick
  14. Published League Two · England
    Bristol Rovers Exeter City
    Home43.72% Draw33.37% Away22.91%
    1–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.