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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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487graded matches
0.5369Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9162Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 13 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%8.9%79
10–20%16.0%13.3%203
20–30%24.8%20.6%533
30–40%34.5%31.8%217
40–50%44.7%53.8%171
50–60%54.6%59.1%115
60–70%64.4%77.9%68
70–80%74.3%79.5%44
80–90%85.0%76.5%17
90–100%93.9%92.9%14

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (487)

Updated 14 Oct 2026 · 14:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home69.14% Draw16.89% Away13.97%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home69.46% Draw16.78% Away13.76%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home69.46% Draw16.78% Away13.76%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home69.46% Draw16.78% Away13.76%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home69.46% Draw16.78% Away13.76%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home69.44% Draw16.79% Away13.78%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home67.09% Draw17.53% Away15.39%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home65.79% Draw18.62% Away15.59%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home65.79% Draw18.62% Away15.59%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home65.79% Draw18.62% Away15.59%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home55.34% Draw20.07% Away24.59%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home55.34% Draw20.07% Away24.59%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home49.94% Draw20.64% Away29.43%
    0–1 Missed
  14. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home53.82% Draw20.08% Away26.10%
    0–1 Missed
  15. Published 3. Division - Girone 2 · Norway
    Melhus Spjelkavik
    Home37.77% Draw33.22% Away29.01%
    0–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.