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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.6014Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0013Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.2%4.8%42
10–20%16.3%13.0%184
20–30%24.9%27.3%575
30–40%34.7%36.3%270
40–50%44.5%42.5%193
50–60%54.8%50.0%120
60–70%64.7%63.9%61
70–80%74.6%78.1%32
80–90%83.7%63.6%11
90–100%91.9%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 16:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home65.06% Draw19.32% Away15.62%
    3–2 Correct pick
  2. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home65.06% Draw19.32% Away15.62%
    3–2 Correct pick
  3. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home69.46% Draw18.48% Away12.06%
    3–2 Correct pick
  4. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home69.46% Draw18.48% Away12.06%
    3–2 Correct pick
  5. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home69.46% Draw18.48% Away12.06%
    3–2 Correct pick
  6. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home66.33% Draw20.45% Away13.22%
    3–2 Correct pick
  7. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home65.24% Draw20.78% Away13.98%
    3–2 Correct pick
  8. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home63.02% Draw21.50% Away15.48%
    3–2 Correct pick
  9. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home60.72% Draw23.59% Away15.69%
    3–2 Correct pick
  10. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home60.72% Draw23.59% Away15.69%
    3–2 Correct pick
  11. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home60.72% Draw23.59% Away15.69%
    3–2 Correct pick
  12. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home66.58% Draw21.80% Away11.62%
    3–2 Correct pick
  13. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home66.58% Draw21.80% Away11.62%
    3–2 Correct pick
  14. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home66.58% Draw21.80% Away11.62%
    3–2 Correct pick
  15. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home71.03% Draw21.78% Away7.19%
    3–2 Correct pick
  16. Published 2. Division - Group 1 · Norway
    Sotra Pors Grenland
    Home53.76% Draw33.21% Away13.03%
    3–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.