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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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495graded matches
0.5663Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9560Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 5 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%2.8%36
10–20%16.4%13.2%182
20–30%24.9%22.7%596
30–40%34.7%36.0%250
40–50%44.8%47.5%183
50–60%54.9%58.7%138
60–70%64.7%70.0%60
70–80%74.7%80.0%25
80–90%84.5%100.0%12
90–100%97.2%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495)

Updated 03 Oct 2026 · 19:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.27% Draw23.27% Away36.46%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.52% Draw23.31% Away36.18%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.52% Draw23.31% Away36.18%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.52% Draw23.31% Away36.18%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.52% Draw23.31% Away36.18%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.40% Draw23.41% Away36.19%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.21% Draw23.41% Away36.38%
    2–1 Correct pick
  8. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.42% Draw23.06% Away36.51%
    2–1 Correct pick
  9. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.42% Draw23.06% Away36.51%
    2–1 Correct pick
  10. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home40.42% Draw23.06% Away36.51%
    2–1 Correct pick
  11. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home47.29% Draw21.53% Away31.18%
    2–1 Correct pick
  12. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home47.29% Draw21.53% Away31.18%
    2–1 Correct pick
  13. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home47.29% Draw21.53% Away31.18%
    2–1 Correct pick
  14. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home47.29% Draw21.53% Away31.18%
    2–1 Correct pick
  15. 4. liga - Divizie E · Czech Republic
    Prostejov B Slavičín
    Home34.31% Draw29.89% Away35.80%
    2–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.