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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5646Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9523Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%5.9%34
10–20%16.2%10.3%165
20–30%25.2%24.3%634
30–40%34.7%29.4%228
40–50%44.8%50.5%200
50–60%54.5%61.2%129
60–70%64.5%72.3%65
70–80%75.0%94.4%18
80–90%84.3%80.0%10
90–100%94.0%80.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 02 Nov 2026 · 03:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home55.04% Draw26.11% Away18.85%
    2–3 Missed
  2. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home56.34% Draw25.65% Away18.01%
    2–3 Missed
  3. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home48.73% Draw24.92% Away26.35%
    2–3 Missed
  4. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home48.72% Draw24.93% Away26.35%
    2–3 Missed
  5. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home48.72% Draw24.93% Away26.35%
    2–3 Missed
  6. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home41.86% Draw25.98% Away32.16%
    2–3 Missed
  7. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home41.86% Draw25.98% Away32.16%
    2–3 Missed
  8. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home41.84% Draw26.02% Away32.15%
    2–3 Missed
  9. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home41.84% Draw26.02% Away32.15%
    2–3 Missed
  10. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home41.84% Draw26.02% Away32.15%
    2–3 Missed
  11. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home46.85% Draw23.78% Away29.37%
    2–3 Missed
  12. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home46.85% Draw23.78% Away29.37%
    2–3 Missed
  13. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home46.85% Draw23.78% Away29.37%
    2–3 Missed
  14. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home46.85% Draw23.78% Away29.37%
    2–3 Missed
  15. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home44.38% Draw28.77% Away26.85%
    2–3 Missed
  16. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Honduras Suriname
    Home44.38% Draw28.77% Away26.85%
    2–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.