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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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488graded matches
0.5691Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9578Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.5%3.6%55
10–20%15.9%14.7%170
20–30%24.7%24.3%569
30–40%35.0%37.4%257
40–50%44.6%38.5%182
50–60%54.1%57.3%117
60–70%64.4%72.7%55
70–80%74.6%84.4%32
80–90%83.1%81.8%22
90–100%91.9%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 17 Oct 2026 · 07:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home21.02% Draw21.59% Away57.39%
    3–2 Missed
  2. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home20.54% Draw21.43% Away58.04%
    3–2 Missed
  3. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home18.97% Draw22.30% Away58.73%
    3–2 Missed
  4. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home18.97% Draw22.30% Away58.73%
    3–2 Missed
  5. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home19.26% Draw22.36% Away58.38%
    3–2 Missed
  6. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home20.62% Draw22.80% Away56.58%
    3–2 Missed
  7. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home20.55% Draw23.10% Away56.35%
    3–2 Missed
  8. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home20.55% Draw23.10% Away56.35%
    3–2 Missed
  9. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home20.55% Draw23.10% Away56.35%
    3–2 Missed
  10. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home28.13% Draw22.70% Away49.17%
    3–2 Missed
  11. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home28.13% Draw22.70% Away49.17%
    3–2 Missed
  12. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home28.13% Draw22.70% Away49.17%
    3–2 Missed
  13. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home28.13% Draw22.70% Away49.17%
    3–2 Missed
  14. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home21.22% Draw33.54% Away45.24%
    3–2 Missed
  15. Published Championship · Northern Ireland
    Newry City AFC H&W Welders
    Home21.48% Draw33.54% Away44.98%
    3–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.