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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5712Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9642Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.2%11.0%82
10–20%16.1%13.1%206
20–30%24.8%24.6%520
30–40%34.1%33.8%198
40–50%44.7%48.3%174
50–60%54.4%53.7%108
60–70%64.4%64.4%73
70–80%75.1%77.8%45
80–90%83.5%63.2%19
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 10:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home41.97% Draw27.99% Away30.04%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home42.62% Draw27.92% Away29.46%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home42.74% Draw27.82% Away29.45%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home42.74% Draw27.82% Away29.45%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home42.74% Draw27.82% Away29.45%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home42.74% Draw27.82% Away29.45%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home42.74% Draw27.82% Away29.45%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home42.74% Draw27.82% Away29.45%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home42.79% Draw27.80% Away29.41%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home40.93% Draw28.97% Away30.09%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home37.32% Draw28.62% Away34.06%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home37.95% Draw28.50% Away33.55%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home35.66% Draw28.61% Away35.73%
    0–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home25.72% Draw33.33% Away40.94%
    0–1 Correct pick
  15. Published Championship · Scotland
    Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir
    Home20.98% Draw33.33% Away45.69%
    0–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.