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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5760Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9690Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%2.1%47
10–20%15.5%16.5%164
20–30%25.2%24.2%583
30–40%34.5%33.0%291
40–50%44.8%48.4%186
50–60%53.8%55.6%108
60–70%64.8%64.5%62
70–80%75.4%78.8%33
80–90%84.8%92.9%14
90–100%96.4%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 18 Oct 2026 · 01:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home51.58% Draw26.88% Away21.55%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home51.82% Draw26.19% Away21.99%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home51.72% Draw26.23% Away22.05%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home51.72% Draw26.23% Away22.05%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home51.72% Draw26.23% Away22.05%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home51.72% Draw26.23% Away22.05%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home51.72% Draw26.23% Away22.05%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home51.72% Draw26.23% Away22.05%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home50.32% Draw26.58% Away23.10%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home49.37% Draw26.48% Away24.14%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home47.13% Draw25.00% Away27.87%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home46.71% Draw25.01% Away28.27%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home46.71% Draw25.01% Away28.27%
    0–1 Missed
  14. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home46.63% Draw25.12% Away28.25%
    0–1 Missed
  15. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Georgia Northern Ireland
    Home42.52% Draw22.00% Away35.48%
    0–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.