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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5968Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0002Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.5%10.0%20
10–20%16.3%11.5%183
20–30%25.3%27.4%621
30–40%34.8%32.5%249
40–50%44.7%41.6%190
50–60%54.7%56.4%133
60–70%63.8%71.9%64
70–80%74.0%77.8%27
80–90%84.4%50.0%4
90–100%--0

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 13 Oct 2026 · 00:34 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home27.11% Draw32.38% Away40.51%
    1–2 Correct pick
  2. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home27.42% Draw32.59% Away39.99%
    1–2 Correct pick
  3. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home27.42% Draw32.59% Away39.99%
    1–2 Correct pick
  4. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home27.42% Draw32.59% Away39.99%
    1–2 Correct pick
  5. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home27.42% Draw32.59% Away39.99%
    1–2 Correct pick
  6. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home27.42% Draw32.59% Away39.99%
    1–2 Correct pick
  7. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home27.42% Draw32.59% Away39.99%
    1–2 Correct pick
  8. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home27.42% Draw32.59% Away39.99%
    1–2 Correct pick
  9. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home25.05% Draw32.71% Away42.23%
    1–2 Correct pick
  10. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home20.46% Draw29.20% Away50.34%
    1–2 Correct pick
  11. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home20.47% Draw29.22% Away50.31%
    1–2 Correct pick
  12. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home20.47% Draw29.22% Away50.31%
    1–2 Correct pick
  13. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home21.08% Draw30.20% Away48.72%
    1–2 Correct pick
  14. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Home10.79% Draw22.00% Away67.21%
    1–2 Correct pick
  15. Published UEFA Nations League · World
    Andorra Malta
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.