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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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491graded matches
0.5594Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9461Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.2%2.4%42
10–20%16.4%13.5%185
20–30%25.0%22.4%584
30–40%34.5%35.4%246
40–50%44.7%47.4%173
50–60%55.0%61.7%141
60–70%64.7%69.0%58
70–80%74.5%78.6%28
80–90%85.4%100.0%13
90–100%96.8%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 04 Oct 2026 · 04:13 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home40.55% Draw30.72% Away28.73%
    3–1 Correct pick
  2. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home40.55% Draw30.72% Away28.73%
    3–1 Correct pick
  3. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.62% Draw30.13% Away28.25%
    3–1 Correct pick
  4. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.62% Draw30.13% Away28.25%
    3–1 Correct pick
  5. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.63% Draw30.19% Away28.18%
    3–1 Correct pick
  6. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home40.99% Draw30.26% Away28.75%
    3–1 Correct pick
  7. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.14% Draw30.09% Away28.77%
    3–1 Correct pick
  8. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.14% Draw30.09% Away28.77%
    3–1 Correct pick
  9. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.14% Draw30.09% Away28.77%
    3–1 Correct pick
  10. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.09% Draw31.80% Away27.12%
    3–1 Correct pick
  11. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.09% Draw31.80% Away27.12%
    3–1 Correct pick
  12. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.09% Draw31.80% Away27.12%
    3–1 Correct pick
  13. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home41.09% Draw31.80% Away27.12%
    3–1 Correct pick
  14. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home34.63% Draw33.73% Away31.64%
    3–1 Correct pick
  15. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home34.63% Draw33.73% Away31.64%
    3–1 Correct pick
  16. Second League · Egypt
    Kahraba Ismailia Pharco
    Home34.63% Draw33.73% Away31.64%
    3–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.