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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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481graded matches
0.6022Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0051Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 19 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.6%3.1%32
10–20%16.2%18.3%142
20–30%25.2%25.7%622
30–40%34.9%32.6%239
40–50%44.7%46.4%207
50–60%54.6%51.3%113
60–70%64.5%64.3%56
70–80%74.8%68.4%19
80–90%83.1%100.0%8
90–100%95.4%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (481)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 10:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home36.35% Draw26.22% Away37.43%
    0–5 Correct pick
  2. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home43.13% Draw22.70% Away34.17%
    0–5 Missed
  3. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home41.91% Draw26.88% Away31.21%
    0–5 Missed
  4. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home42.76% Draw26.90% Away30.34%
    0–5 Missed
  5. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home43.33% Draw26.76% Away29.92%
    0–5 Missed
  6. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home44.84% Draw26.96% Away28.20%
    0–5 Missed
  7. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home47.54% Draw26.61% Away25.85%
    0–5 Missed
  8. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home47.42% Draw26.64% Away25.94%
    0–5 Missed
  9. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home44.86% Draw27.26% Away27.88%
    0–5 Missed
  10. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home44.86% Draw27.26% Away27.88%
    0–5 Missed
  11. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home44.95% Draw26.53% Away28.52%
    0–5 Missed
  12. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home44.95% Draw26.53% Away28.52%
    0–5 Missed
  13. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home43.55% Draw28.42% Away28.04%
    0–5 Missed
  14. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home43.55% Draw28.42% Away28.04%
    0–5 Missed
  15. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Home43.55% Draw28.42% Away28.04%
    0–5 Missed
  16. Published Friendlies · World
    China Palestine
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.