← Predictions
Recorded before kickoff
The forecast. The timestamp. The result.
Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.
Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.
Public calibration - frozen forecasts
497graded matches
0.5865Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9841Log loss
Show the calibration table
| Probability band | Mean predicted | Observed frequency | Outcome observations |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 39 |
| 10–20% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 152 |
| 20–30% | 25.5% | 23.4% | 624 |
| 30–40% | 34.4% | 36.0% | 258 |
| 40–50% | 45.0% | 46.3% | 214 |
| 50–60% | 54.5% | 55.8% | 113 |
| 60–70% | 64.6% | 69.8% | 53 |
| 70–80% | 74.3% | 76.0% | 25 |
| 80–90% | 85.2% | 90.0% | 10 |
| 90–100% | 95.6% | 100.0% | 3 |
The evidence
Versions for this fixture
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Curico Unido ConcepciónHome30.65% Draw28.01% Away41.34%0–4 Correct pick -
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Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.
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Get the full match analysis
Explore additional markets, team probability history and opponent-adjusted form. Historical coverage varies by match.