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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.5638Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9478Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%2.8%72
10–20%16.1%18.6%210
20–30%24.4%23.0%560
30–40%35.1%35.5%217
40–50%45.0%51.2%170
50–60%54.6%46.4%125
60–70%64.3%63.5%74
70–80%75.1%78.9%38
80–90%83.8%95.0%20
90–100%94.1%100.0%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 26 Sep 2026 · 11:17 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.13% Draw23.56% Away41.31%
    0–1 Correct pick
  2. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.13% Draw23.56% Away41.31%
    0–1 Correct pick
  3. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.13% Draw23.56% Away41.31%
    0–1 Correct pick
  4. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.13% Draw23.56% Away41.31%
    0–1 Correct pick
  5. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.13% Draw23.56% Away41.31%
    0–1 Correct pick
  6. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.13% Draw23.56% Away41.31%
    0–1 Correct pick
  7. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.13% Draw23.56% Away41.31%
    0–1 Correct pick
  8. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home36.37% Draw23.21% Away40.42%
    0–1 Correct pick
  9. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home36.37% Draw23.21% Away40.42%
    0–1 Correct pick
  10. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home46.57% Draw22.16% Away31.27%
    0–1 Missed
  11. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home46.57% Draw22.16% Away31.27%
    0–1 Missed
  12. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home47.71% Draw22.16% Away30.13%
    0–1 Missed
  13. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.74% Draw33.73% Away30.53%
    0–1 Missed
  14. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.74% Draw33.73% Away30.53%
    0–1 Missed
  15. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.74% Draw33.73% Away30.53%
    0–1 Missed
  16. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    Zwaluwen Purmersteijn
    Home35.74% Draw33.73% Away30.53%
    0–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.