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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5620Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9484Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%7.2%97
10–20%16.0%19.0%237
20–30%24.6%22.5%502
30–40%34.8%35.4%206
40–50%44.5%49.3%150
50–60%54.3%53.8%117
60–70%64.0%62.0%79
70–80%73.5%68.2%44
80–90%84.0%77.4%31
90–100%94.3%93.8%16

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (437) · Earlier models (50) · v3 (6)

Updated 25 Sep 2026 · 16:47 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home71.99% Draw17.13% Away10.89%
    0–0 Missed
  2. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home71.99% Draw17.13% Away10.89%
    0–0 Missed
  3. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home71.99% Draw17.13% Away10.89%
    0–0 Missed
  4. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home71.99% Draw17.13% Away10.89%
    0–0 Missed
  5. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home71.99% Draw17.13% Away10.89%
    0–0 Missed
  6. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home71.99% Draw17.13% Away10.89%
    0–0 Missed
  7. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home71.99% Draw17.13% Away10.89%
    0–0 Missed
  8. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home67.64% Draw18.64% Away13.72%
    0–0 Missed
  9. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home67.64% Draw18.64% Away13.72%
    0–0 Missed
  10. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home34.58% Draw22.53% Away42.88%
    0–0 Missed
  11. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home34.58% Draw22.53% Away42.88%
    0–0 Missed
  12. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home34.58% Draw22.53% Away42.88%
    0–0 Missed
  13. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home34.95% Draw29.99% Away35.06%
    0–0 Missed
  14. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home34.95% Draw29.99% Away35.06%
    0–0 Missed
  15. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home34.95% Draw29.99% Away35.06%
    0–0 Missed
  16. WSL Cup · England
    Tottenham Hotspur W West Ham W
    Home34.95% Draw29.99% Away35.06%
    0–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.