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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.5638Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9478Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%2.8%72
10–20%16.1%18.6%210
20–30%24.4%23.0%560
30–40%35.1%35.5%217
40–50%45.0%51.2%170
50–60%54.6%46.4%125
60–70%64.3%63.5%74
70–80%75.1%78.9%38
80–90%83.8%95.0%20
90–100%94.1%100.0%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 26 Sep 2026 · 11:17 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home23.10% Draw23.12% Away53.79%
    0–2 Correct pick
  2. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home23.10% Draw23.12% Away53.79%
    0–2 Correct pick
  3. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home23.10% Draw23.12% Away53.79%
    0–2 Correct pick
  4. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home23.10% Draw23.12% Away53.79%
    0–2 Correct pick
  5. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home23.10% Draw23.12% Away53.79%
    0–2 Correct pick
  6. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home23.10% Draw23.12% Away53.79%
    0–2 Correct pick
  7. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home23.10% Draw23.12% Away53.79%
    0–2 Correct pick
  8. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home22.91% Draw24.36% Away52.73%
    0–2 Correct pick
  9. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home22.91% Draw24.36% Away52.73%
    0–2 Correct pick
  10. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home27.73% Draw23.07% Away49.20%
    0–2 Correct pick
  11. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home27.73% Draw23.07% Away49.20%
    0–2 Correct pick
  12. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home27.73% Draw23.07% Away49.20%
    0–2 Correct pick
  13. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home33.00% Draw29.69% Away37.31%
    0–2 Correct pick
  14. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home33.00% Draw29.69% Away37.31%
    0–2 Correct pick
  15. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home33.00% Draw29.69% Away37.31%
    0–2 Correct pick
  16. WSL Cup · England
    Nottingham Forest W Aston Villa W
    Home33.00% Draw29.69% Away37.31%
    0–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.