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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5822Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9773Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%0.0%38
10–20%16.0%15.2%197
20–30%25.1%25.0%575
30–40%34.5%32.1%240
40–50%44.8%50.0%180
50–60%54.7%57.0%128
60–70%65.0%56.8%74
70–80%73.5%83.3%24
80–90%84.6%100.0%6
90–100%93.4%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 18:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Notts County Grimsby
    Home41.68% Draw25.86% Away32.46%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Notts County Grimsby
    Home42.32% Draw25.57% Away32.11%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Notts County Grimsby
    Home39.41% Draw25.78% Away34.81%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Notts County Grimsby
    Home47.03% Draw28.43% Away24.54%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Notts County Grimsby
    Home47.03% Draw28.43% Away24.54%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Notts County Grimsby
    Home47.03% Draw28.43% Away24.54%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Notts County Grimsby
    Home47.03% Draw28.43% Away24.54%
    2–1 Correct pick
  8. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Notts County Grimsby
    Home47.03% Draw28.43% Away24.54%
    2–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.