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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5603Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9497Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.5%7.6%66
10–20%15.9%10.6%226
20–30%24.5%25.8%543
30–40%34.6%33.0%218
40–50%44.7%47.5%158
50–60%54.5%52.0%127
60–70%64.6%72.7%77
70–80%74.9%76.0%50
80–90%84.1%89.5%19
90–100%94.5%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 01:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Ettan - Norra · Sweden
    Arlanda Hammarby Talang
    Home31.65% Draw23.23% Away45.13%
    4–2 Missed
  2. Published Ettan - Norra · Sweden
    Arlanda Hammarby Talang
    Home32.38% Draw23.31% Away44.30%
    4–2 Missed
  3. Published Ettan - Norra · Sweden
    Arlanda Hammarby Talang
    Home27.65% Draw28.01% Away44.34%
    4–2 Missed
  4. Published Ettan - Norra · Sweden
    Arlanda Hammarby Talang
    Home30.26% Draw32.85% Away36.88%
    4–2 Missed
  5. Published Ettan - Norra · Sweden
    Arlanda Hammarby Talang
    Home28.21% Draw32.85% Away38.94%
    4–2 Missed
  6. Published Ettan - Norra · Sweden
    Arlanda Hammarby Talang
    Home24.01% Draw32.35% Away43.64%
    4–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.