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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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495graded matches
0.5862Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9820Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 5 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%0.0%33
10–20%16.4%13.1%168
20–30%25.2%26.0%607
30–40%34.4%31.6%250
40–50%44.8%47.0%219
50–60%54.6%53.6%112
60–70%64.9%72.1%61
70–80%74.7%79.2%24
80–90%84.2%88.9%9
90–100%91.8%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495)

Updated 11 Oct 2026 · 07:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Primera División · Venezuela
    UCV Carabobo FC
    Home25.70% Draw33.92% Away40.39%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Primera División · Venezuela
    UCV Carabobo FC
    Home25.70% Draw33.92% Away40.39%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Primera División · Venezuela
    UCV Carabobo FC
    Home25.82% Draw33.85% Away40.33%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Primera División · Venezuela
    UCV Carabobo FC
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.