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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5948Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9952Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%10.8%37
10–20%16.2%16.4%159
20–30%25.4%22.2%599
30–40%34.6%39.0%290
40–50%44.4%45.4%185
50–60%54.3%60.5%124
60–70%64.1%61.8%55
70–80%74.5%58.3%24
80–90%84.4%85.7%14
90–100%98.3%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 04 Oct 2026 · 21:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Catarinense - 3 · Brazil
    Manchester SC Internacional SC
    Home43.80% Draw26.63% Away29.56%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Catarinense - 3 · Brazil
    Manchester SC Internacional SC
    Home37.63% Draw29.65% Away32.72%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Catarinense - 3 · Brazil
    Manchester SC Internacional SC
    Home37.63% Draw29.65% Away32.72%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Catarinense - 3 · Brazil
    Manchester SC Internacional SC
    Home37.63% Draw29.65% Away32.72%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published Catarinense - 3 · Brazil
    Manchester SC Internacional SC
    Home37.63% Draw29.65% Away32.72%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.