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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5550Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9389Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%8.2%85
10–20%15.8%13.2%258
20–30%24.6%25.3%501
30–40%34.7%33.9%192
40–50%44.7%45.9%157
50–60%54.6%52.9%102
60–70%64.4%66.7%93
70–80%74.2%76.5%51
80–90%85.4%82.1%28
90–100%94.4%100.0%9

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 10:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Picuiense São Paulo Crystal
    Home27.07% Draw23.12% Away49.81%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Picuiense São Paulo Crystal
    Home21.44% Draw33.23% Away45.32%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Picuiense São Paulo Crystal
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  4. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Picuiense São Paulo Crystal
    Home21.44% Draw33.23% Away45.32%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Picuiense São Paulo Crystal
    Home15.84% Draw33.23% Away50.93%
    0–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.