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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5856Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9874Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%13.9%72
10–20%15.9%10.6%216
20–30%24.8%26.6%549
30–40%34.4%35.5%217
40–50%45.0%44.5%173
50–60%54.5%50.9%116
60–70%64.6%68.9%74
70–80%74.8%72.9%48
80–90%84.0%70.0%20
90–100%93.8%83.3%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 16:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Philadelphia Union II New York City II
    Home61.84% Draw20.16% Away18.00%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Philadelphia Union II New York City II
    Home45.44% Draw32.02% Away22.54%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Philadelphia Union II New York City II
    Home45.44% Draw32.02% Away22.54%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Philadelphia Union II New York City II
    Home45.44% Draw32.02% Away22.54%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Philadelphia Union II New York City II
    Home45.44% Draw32.02% Away22.54%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.