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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.6093Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0151Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.9%4.7%43
10–20%15.7%16.3%208
20–30%25.0%29.9%565
30–40%34.5%29.2%253
40–50%44.5%41.0%188
50–60%54.9%52.7%110
60–70%64.5%53.9%76
70–80%74.3%76.9%39
80–90%85.1%92.3%13
90–100%92.0%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 14:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Comercial PI River AC
    Home29.02% Draw33.23% Away37.75%
    2–1 Missed
  2. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Comercial PI River AC
    Home29.02% Draw33.23% Away37.75%
    2–1 Missed
  3. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Comercial PI River AC
    Home29.02% Draw33.23% Away37.75%
    2–1 Missed
  4. Published Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
    Comercial PI River AC
    Home27.75% Draw33.33% Away38.92%
    2–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.