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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5673Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9590Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%8.2%73
10–20%15.9%11.3%222
20–30%24.6%25.4%527
30–40%34.5%33.8%234
40–50%44.6%49.7%171
50–60%54.6%50.4%113
60–70%64.7%69.4%72
70–80%74.6%73.1%52
80–90%83.8%85.7%21
90–100%95.0%83.3%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 17:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Primeira Liga · Portugal
    Sporting CP Arouca
    Home72.23% Draw21.56% Away6.21%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Primeira Liga · Portugal
    Sporting CP Arouca
    Home72.18% Draw21.61% Away6.21%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Primeira Liga · Portugal
    Sporting CP Arouca
    Home68.25% Draw22.58% Away9.17%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Primeira Liga · Portugal
    Sporting CP Arouca
    Home70.73% Draw21.78% Away7.49%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.