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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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489graded matches
0.5588Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9435Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%4.9%81
10–20%15.8%16.2%234
20–30%24.8%25.2%507
30–40%34.5%32.7%214
40–50%44.6%43.0%165
50–60%54.3%56.1%98
60–70%64.3%63.2%87
70–80%74.5%76.6%47
80–90%84.7%89.5%19
90–100%94.9%100.0%15

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 23:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home71.47% Draw17.23% Away11.30%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home71.83% Draw17.19% Away10.99%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home79.97% Draw13.19% Away6.84%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home79.99% Draw13.17% Away6.84%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home80.14% Draw13.14% Away6.72%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home80.14% Draw13.14% Away6.72%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home80.14% Draw13.14% Away6.72%
    2–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home80.14% Draw13.14% Away6.72%
    2–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home80.14% Draw13.14% Away6.72%
    2–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home80.59% Draw12.92% Away6.49%
    2–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home78.13% Draw14.03% Away7.83%
    2–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home79.42% Draw13.11% Away7.47%
    2–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home79.42% Draw13.11% Away7.47%
    2–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home79.42% Draw13.11% Away7.47%
    2–1 Correct pick
  15. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home69.39% Draw20.81% Away9.80%
    2–1 Correct pick
  16. Published Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
    Dartford Whitehawk
    Home69.39% Draw20.81% Away9.80%
    2–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.