The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

490graded matches

0.5617Multiclass Brier (0–2)

0.9502Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table

Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability band	Mean predicted	Observed frequency	Outcome observations
0–10%	7.0%	11.8%	34
10–20%	16.2%	10.1%	208
20–30%	25.0%	23.8%	555
30–40%	34.2%	33.7%	252
40–50%	44.4%	48.6%	179
50–60%	54.7%	54.5%	123
60–70%	64.2%	74.0%	77
70–80%	74.2%	90.6%	32
80–90%	85.1%	75.0%	8
90–100%	92.8%	100.0%	2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 05:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.

Versions for this fixture

Get the full match analysis

Share this page