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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5490Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9295Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%3.1%64
10–20%16.0%10.6%199
20–30%25.0%25.4%575
30–40%34.7%36.5%211
40–50%44.8%41.3%172
50–60%54.9%53.8%119
60–70%64.4%75.6%78
70–80%74.4%87.1%31
80–90%85.6%88.9%18
90–100%94.2%100.0%9

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 09 Oct 2026 · 00:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Ligue 3 · France
    Versailles Quevilly
    Home42.42% Draw29.15% Away28.43%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published Ligue 3 · France
    Versailles Quevilly
    Home42.42% Draw29.15% Away28.43%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published Ligue 3 · France
    Versailles Quevilly
    Home42.58% Draw29.13% Away28.29%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published Ligue 3 · France
    Versailles Quevilly
    Home42.50% Draw29.17% Away28.33%
    0–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.