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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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498graded matches
0.5759Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9687Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 2 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%2.1%47
10–20%15.5%16.5%164
20–30%25.2%24.3%588
30–40%34.6%33.2%289
40–50%44.8%47.3%182
50–60%53.8%56.3%112
60–70%64.8%64.5%62
70–80%75.4%78.8%33
80–90%84.8%92.9%14
90–100%96.4%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (498)

Updated 18 Oct 2026 · 00:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Primera A · Colombia
    Independiente Medellin Jaguares
    Home70.10% Draw22.03% Away7.87%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Primera A · Colombia
    Independiente Medellin Jaguares
    Home69.57% Draw22.06% Away8.37%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Primera A · Colombia
    Independiente Medellin Jaguares
    Home69.02% Draw22.43% Away8.55%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Primera A · Colombia
    Independiente Medellin Jaguares
    Home61.24% Draw25.53% Away13.23%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Primera A · Colombia
    Independiente Medellin Jaguares
    Home61.24% Draw25.53% Away13.23%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Primera A · Colombia
    Independiente Medellin Jaguares
    Home61.08% Draw25.17% Away13.75%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Primera A · Colombia
    Independiente Medellin Jaguares
    Home61.91% Draw25.68% Away12.41%
    2–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.