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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5517Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9353Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.4%7.6%79
10–20%16.1%15.8%222
20–30%24.5%21.7%516
30–40%35.0%37.8%209
40–50%44.6%44.3%176
50–60%54.4%57.3%124
60–70%64.1%74.3%70
70–80%73.2%69.4%36
80–90%84.2%80.0%25
90–100%94.7%92.3%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (294) · Earlier models (190) · v3 (6)

Updated 25 Sep 2026 · 09:39 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Liga Alef · Israel
    Maccabi Ashdod Ironi Beit Shemesh
    Home38.49% Draw29.59% Away31.92%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Liga Alef · Israel
    Maccabi Ashdod Ironi Beit Shemesh
    Home34.87% Draw29.15% Away35.99%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Liga Alef · Israel
    Maccabi Ashdod Ironi Beit Shemesh
    Home34.90% Draw29.10% Away36.00%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Liga Alef · Israel
    Maccabi Ashdod Ironi Beit Shemesh
    Home43.69% Draw33.33% Away22.97%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.