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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5856Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9874Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%13.9%72
10–20%15.9%10.6%216
20–30%24.8%26.6%549
30–40%34.4%35.5%217
40–50%45.0%44.5%173
50–60%54.5%50.9%116
60–70%64.6%68.9%74
70–80%74.8%72.9%48
80–90%84.0%70.0%20
90–100%93.8%83.3%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 16:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home53.35% Draw27.15% Away19.51%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home53.41% Draw27.02% Away19.57%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home37.52% Draw27.29% Away35.19%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home36.77% Draw26.99% Away36.24%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home36.75% Draw27.00% Away36.25%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home36.77% Draw26.99% Away36.25%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home39.43% Draw27.02% Away33.55%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home40.19% Draw27.08% Away32.73%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home40.19% Draw27.08% Away32.73%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home36.09% Draw26.52% Away37.40%
    0–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home36.09% Draw26.52% Away37.40%
    0–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home35.10% Draw28.58% Away36.33%
    0–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home35.10% Draw28.58% Away36.33%
    0–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Home35.10% Draw28.58% Away36.33%
    0–1 Correct pick
  15. Published Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
    Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.