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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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494graded matches
0.5548Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9408Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%6.4%47
10–20%15.9%12.3%211
20–30%24.8%22.7%560
30–40%34.9%33.2%238
40–50%44.8%50.3%183
50–60%54.5%58.2%110
60–70%64.2%74.7%79
70–80%74.7%82.9%35
80–90%84.2%73.3%15
90–100%95.4%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 09 Nov 2026 · 12:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home39.65% Draw28.85% Away31.50%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home41.68% Draw28.69% Away29.63%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home55.57% Draw24.83% Away19.59%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home55.66% Draw24.77% Away19.57%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home57.98% Draw23.93% Away18.09%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home58.71% Draw23.66% Away17.63%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home58.71% Draw23.66% Away17.63%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home58.39% Draw23.81% Away17.80%
    0–0 Missed
  9. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home54.06% Draw25.52% Away20.42%
    0–0 Missed
  10. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home54.06% Draw25.52% Away20.42%
    0–0 Missed
  11. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home59.19% Draw23.91% Away16.89%
    0–0 Missed
  12. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home57.27% Draw24.44% Away18.28%
    0–0 Missed
  13. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home59.28% Draw22.69% Away18.03%
    0–0 Missed
  14. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home59.28% Draw22.69% Away18.03%
    0–0 Missed
  15. Published NPFL · Nigeria
    Sporting Lagos Ikorodu City
    Home59.28% Draw22.69% Away18.03%
    0–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.