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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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485graded matches
0.5944Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9904Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 15 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%3.6%56
10–20%16.2%19.4%196
20–30%24.8%25.4%535
30–40%34.4%33.9%254
40–50%44.4%45.0%169
50–60%54.2%53.5%114
60–70%64.2%57.7%78
70–80%75.0%73.3%30
80–90%83.8%69.2%13
90–100%94.4%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (485)

Updated 30 Oct 2026 · 17:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Asane Stabaek
    Home14.30% Draw16.44% Away69.26%
    0–1 Correct pick
  2. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Asane Stabaek
    Home14.30% Draw16.44% Away69.26%
    0–1 Correct pick
  3. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Asane Stabaek
    Home14.30% Draw16.44% Away69.26%
    0–1 Correct pick
  4. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Asane Stabaek
    Home17.79% Draw19.33% Away62.88%
    0–1 Correct pick
  5. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Asane Stabaek
    Home17.79% Draw19.33% Away62.88%
    0–1 Correct pick
  6. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Asane Stabaek
    Home23.72% Draw21.92% Away54.35%
    0–1 Correct pick
  7. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Asane Stabaek
    Home21.20% Draw21.27% Away57.52%
    0–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.