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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5633Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9515Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%5.6%54
10–20%15.9%14.5%228
20–30%24.7%24.0%550
30–40%34.9%32.1%215
40–50%45.0%50.3%175
50–60%54.7%55.2%116
60–70%64.3%66.7%78
70–80%74.9%83.3%42
80–90%84.4%75.0%16
90–100%94.8%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 12 Nov 2026 · 03:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Division · Norway
    ODD Ballklubb Sandnes ULF
    Home59.10% Draw19.64% Away21.27%
    3–3 Missed
  2. Published 1. Division · Norway
    ODD Ballklubb Sandnes ULF
    Home53.97% Draw20.74% Away25.29%
    3–3 Missed
  3. Published 1. Division · Norway
    ODD Ballklubb Sandnes ULF
    Home51.26% Draw21.22% Away27.52%
    3–3 Missed
  4. Published 1. Division · Norway
    ODD Ballklubb Sandnes ULF
    Home52.16% Draw21.03% Away26.81%
    3–3 Missed
  5. Published 1. Division · Norway
    ODD Ballklubb Sandnes ULF
    Home52.16% Draw21.03% Away26.81%
    3–3 Missed
  6. Published 1. Division · Norway
    ODD Ballklubb Sandnes ULF
    Home54.41% Draw20.54% Away25.05%
    3–3 Missed
  7. Published 1. Division · Norway
    ODD Ballklubb Sandnes ULF
    Home62.21% Draw18.75% Away19.04%
    3–3 Missed
  8. Published 1. Division · Norway
    ODD Ballklubb Sandnes ULF
    Home66.05% Draw17.99% Away15.96%
    3–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.