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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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482graded matches
0.5650Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9542Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 18 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.4%7.0%71
10–20%16.3%16.1%199
20–30%24.8%23.7%528
30–40%34.3%31.5%219
40–50%44.8%48.1%187
50–60%54.9%58.4%113
60–70%64.5%65.7%70
70–80%75.8%82.1%28
80–90%83.6%72.2%18
90–100%95.4%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (482)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 18:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Haugesund Strommen
    Home65.02% Draw18.18% Away16.80%
    4–2 Correct pick
  2. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Haugesund Strommen
    Home64.82% Draw23.07% Away12.11%
    4–2 Correct pick
  3. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Haugesund Strommen
    Home66.65% Draw22.22% Away11.13%
    4–2 Correct pick
  4. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Haugesund Strommen
    Home59.87% Draw22.39% Away17.74%
    4–2 Correct pick
  5. Published 1. Division · Norway
    Haugesund Strommen
    Home39.37% Draw33.19% Away27.44%
    4–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.