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Frozen pre-match forecast · #601

Chievo VS Club Milano

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 05:04 UTC
Match kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
48.3%
Draw
28.5%
Away
23.1%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 090-minute result
Brier score
0.4018
Log loss
0.7269

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
ML_composition_v8:Advanced_joint_form_v69
Captured at
16 Sep 2026 · 05:04 UTC
SHA-256
f7dbce2a9a1775abafced00f86dd294d58ae6d00f0b5284de433fc38e60f8279

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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