West Brom VS Wrexham

West Brom have dragged themselves back from the brink. Four weeks ago, the Baggies were staring at League One football. Now, after back-to-back wins over Hull City and Bristol City followed by draws against solid opposition, James Morrison's side return from the international break with something they haven't had in months: belief. Sitting 20th on 43 points with a four-point cushion above the drop zone, this Good Friday fixture against playoff-chasing Wrexham is the kind of game that defines a survival campaign.

Momentum Meets Desperation at The Hawthorns

West Brom's recent upturn has been built on defensive solidity rather than attacking fireworks. Two consecutive clean sheets preceded the international break, and Morrison has clearly tightened things up since taking charge. Nat Phillips has been a steady presence at the back with three goals from centre-half across 32 appearances, while Isaac Price — six goals and two assists from midfield — has provided the creative spark from deep. The concern for the Baggies is up front: Karlan Ahearne-Grant remains sidelined with a hamstring problem, Mikey Johnston is out, and Josh Maja has managed just one goal in 29 appearances this term. Albert Heggebø carries the goalscoring burden with eight for the season, but West Brom have failed to score in 12 of their 39 league matches. That's a damning number.

Then there's the goalkeeper situation. Max O'Leary picked up a knock against Hull before the break, and Josh Griffiths — who replaced him and kept a clean sheet at Bristol City — looks set to continue between the sticks. It could prove a blessing in disguise. Griffiths has a point to prove with his contract situation uncertain, and desperation breeds performance in a relegation fight.

The Hawthorns factor matters, too. West Brom's home record of seven wins, seven draws, and five defeats is nothing spectacular, but it's significantly better than their miserable away return of four wins from 20 road trips. Morrison's men know what this ground means. Expect noise, intensity, and an early press designed to unsettle a Wrexham side missing several key players.

Wrexham's Injury Crisis Clouds Playoff Push

Phil Parkinson's side sit seventh on 63 points, three adrift of Southampton in the final playoff berth, and their form reads WLWLW — maddeningly inconsistent. That alternating pattern tells you everything about where Wrexham are psychologically. They can beat anyone on their day, as their 2-1 win at Sheffield Utd demonstrated, but cannot string results together. Three losses in five has allowed the pack to close in.

The bigger problem for Wrexham heading into The Hawthorns is personnel. Kieffer Moore — their talisman with 11 goals — is ruled out with a tendon injury, and his absence rips the heart out of their attack. Ben Sheaf is done for the season. George Dobson is suspended. Matty James and Liberato Cacace are both nursing injuries, though Parkinson has expressed cautious hope one or two could return. That's potentially four starters missing from a side that was already rotating between formations.

Without Moore to hold the ball up and bully Championship centre-halves, Wrexham's 3-4-2-1 system loses its focal point. Sam Smith offers energy but has just six goals in 29 appearances, while Nathan Broadhead and Josh Windass — nine goals between them — will need to carry the creative burden from wider positions. Wrexham's away record of eight wins and six draws from 19 is respectable, but they'll arrive in the West Midlands without the spine of their team.

One stat that should concern Parkinson: both sides are dangerously vulnerable late in matches. West Brom have scored 11 goals between the 76th and 90th minute but conceded 11 in the same window. Wrexham's numbers are even more dramatic — 15 scored and 17 conceded in that period. If this game is tight entering the final quarter, anything can happen.

The Verdict

West Brom's survival instinct will be the decisive factor here. Morrison has steadied the ship, the home crowd will be ferocious on Good Friday, and Wrexham are simply too depleted to impose themselves the way they'd want. Without Moore leading the line and with midfield weakened by Sheaf's absence and Dobson's suspension, the visitors lack the tools to control this game. Albert Heggebø and Isaac Price have enough quality to punish a stretched Wrexham backline, particularly in the second half when legs tire and gaps appear.

The 55% confidence in a home win feels about right — perhaps even slightly conservative given Wrexham's absentee list. West Brom aren't a good side by any stretch, but they're a desperate one. And in the Championship, desperation counts for a lot more than quality when survival is at stake. Back the Baggies to grind out a narrow win — 1-0 or 2-1 — and take another step toward safety.